نمایش نسخه قابل چاپ
roll forming machine
pipe welding lineHow oftentimes do we must make a fabulous stab at nighttime, when we must make a choice when most of us don't :and won't be able to - know the facts? "Decision creating under disorders of uncertainty" might not be a saying that arises to workers' mind, but I'm certain that everyone recognize the matter.
Practical application of the well-known statistical theory :the 'minimax regret theory' - could help here. Essentially, what that theory pronounces is which you assume which usually whatever final choice you make would be the wrong a person. You then aim to minimise all the 'regret' that you'll have for producing the mistaken decision.
cut to length line
Here's a very simple example. You have no idea of if it is going to rain at this time, but you have to decide if to take your umbrella to you. If you may not, and them rains, you're going to get wet. Should you choose, and it won't rain, you'll have had this inconvenience in carrying the umbrella round throughout the day. slitting lineSo, given that you'll make a bad decision, that will you regret one of the most? (Don't check with me to determine for one! )
In the business everyday life, too, we're faced having many the same uncertain conditions. For model, do we all spend a particular some of money for a new system - or simply on excess marketing? Which may bring with more make money? We have no idea. If we all spend it about the marketing may we regret devoid of the economical edge the fact that new product would provide us. Or even, if we had the fresh machine, could most people sell the output with no extra marketing?
Suppose we had decided the competitive edge of your new machine hasn't been very fundamental, and the extra marketing and advertising was -- and suppose that we are wrong; the marketing wasn't successful and even our competitors stole some sort of march concerning us making use of their new product. forming machineHow considerably would you regret that when compared with. . .
. forming machine. . whenever we bought the newest machine, and your competitors (with ones own old machines) gained market share simply because they had spent additional money on advertisements and promo?
Minimax regret will not give instant methods of this kind of decision making, because usually we are unable to quantify that possible outcomes. But it can give usa another rational technique for making options. pipe welding line
If you're not into number-crunching, you'll be able to stop looking through here. But if you'd like a statistical example in minimax feel dissapointed theory, then continue reading. . . cut to length line
Here's an additional business problem, this time frame with several numerical presumptions. You will do an immediate mail shot. You do not know what that response rate might be - 5%? 2%? 1%? In the event you mail outside 10, 000, 1, 000 - or 100. You know that you'll only have the chance to do a mailshot, because next, your competition will move around in and control you your option. cut to length lineI would not bore you with the calculations here, (you might check my own arithmetic should you like) however , assume which it costs $3. 00 for every mailshot, as well as your income a sale (before the particular mailing costs) is certainly $100. 00 (for bucks, read your personal currency! )
On these types of assumptions, should you mail outside 10, 000, therefore you only receive a 1% results, your loss will likely be $20, 000 - balanced with a decrease in only $200 when you had shipped out really 100. Simply put maximum regret due to this action -- the substantial mailout -- is $19, 900.
pipe welding line
Similarly, should the response were being 5%, and you'd prefered the 100-mailshot, your revenue would only are $200, when compared with $20, 000 in the event you'd sent by mail all 10, 000. All over again, a 'regret' connected with $19, 800
But in the event you'd sent by mail out 1, 000, that has a 5% answer, your income can have been $2, 000, when compared with all the $20, 000 on the 10, 000 mailshot -- a 'regret' connected with $18, 000 - a lesser amount than the $19, 800 'regrets' on the other couple of actions. ('Regrets' with the 2% in addition to 1% results are a great deal smaller). So this can be the course for action believe go for, because the software minimizes the ideal regret.
Intuitively, when you had believed the hardest, you can have gone with the smallest mailout. But 'minimax regret' demonstrates this could possibly have been a different method. Often, when you may make getting some sort of numerical estimate on the possible consequences, a spreadsheet device can quicken the quantity crunching appreciably. An more desirable management resource is 'hindsight', better often known as 'being wise as soon as the event'!
. .
line blog
line
About roll-forming.cn blog
Christian Louboutin Boots sale
Christian Louboutin Boots
Christian Louboutin Shoes
Louboutin Boots
New-Style Christian Louboutin
buy Christian Louboutin Sandals
buy Christian Louboutin Pumps
Christian Louboutin outlet
Louboutin Evening
cheap Christian Louboutin Sandals.
sale blog
sale
About enjoycl.com blog
A. Lange & Sohne watches
Replica A. Lange & Sohne watches
fake A. Lange & Sohne watches
copy A. Lange & Sohne watches
cheap A. Lange & Sohne watches
discount Piaget watches
Replica Patek Philippe watches
buy Gevril Watches
Replica IWC watches
buy montblanc watch.
Hermes blog
Hermes
About replicawatchesboy.com blog
A-line Wedding Dresses sale
Beach Wedding Dresses
Beach Wedding Gowns
Beach Dresses
discount Wedding Dresses
.There are a multitude of things thinking about.When and where stands out as the wedding about to be, what person to why not invite, what colors to apply, what to enjoy, who will make the cake along with the food, maybe there is a creep, and that will provide all the music? There are numerous questions to always be answered and dealt with.Not everything will have to be so irritating; some of this preparations can be fun.
Will show you fun what you should plan will be "save your date cards".Your save the night out cards may be a fun thing to pick out.When choosing your preserve the day cards enjoy the fun and find fun cards you require.Part of the reason these kind of cards are actually fun to take is while they do not need to match the remainder of any invitations or maybe decorations in your weddingA-line Wedding Dresses sale Beach Wedding Dresses Beach Wedding Gowns Beach Dresses discount Wedding Dresses Ball Gown Wedding Dresses,cheap Ball Gown Wedding Dresses,Ball Gown Wedding Dresses online,Designer Wedding Dresses language: http://www.dresssmall.com/langimg/gericon.gif http://www.dresssmall.com/langimg/fricon.gifFrançais http://www.dresssmall.com/langimg/iticon.gifitaliano http://www.dresssmall.com/langimg/esicon.gifEspañol http://www.dresssmall.com/langimg/pticon.gif http://www.dresssmall.com/langimg/jpicon.gif http://www.dresssmall.com/langimg/ruicon.gif http://www.dresssmall.com/langimg/aricon.gifarabic http://www.dresssmall.com/langimg/noicon.gifnorwegian http://www.dresssmall.com/langimg/svicon.gifswedish http://www.dresssmall.com/langimg/daicon.gifdanish http://www.dresssmall.com/langimg/nlicon.gifNederlands http://www.dresssmall.com/langimg/fiicon.gif http://www.dresssmall.com/langimg/gaicon.gifireland http://www.dresssmall.com/langimg/icon.gifEnglish Cheap Wedding Dresses Online Shop Offers Cheap bridesmaid dresses[/b] Welcome! Sign In or Register http://www.dresssmall.com/includes/t...mages/logo.gifPowered by Zen Cart :: The Art of E-Commerce http://www.dresssmall.com/includes/t...ages/c_cou.png2012 hot sale Strapless organza pick ups Embroider bodice Design ball gown Wedding Dress Shopping Cart Home Wedding Dresses Cocktail Dresses Evening Dresses Prom Dresses Wedding Accessories Contact Us Wholesale Order Tracking Categories Wedding Dresses Asymmetrical Wedding Dresses Ball Gown Wedding Dresses Cathedral Train Wedding Dresses Chapel Train Wedding Dresses Court Train Wedding Dresses Empire Wedding Dresses Gothic Wedding Dresses Maternity Wedding Dresses Princess Wedding Dresses Sheath Wedding Dresses Evening Dresses Cocktail Dresses Prom Dresses Special Occasion Dresses A-line Wedding Dresses Beach Wedding Dresses Plus Size Wedding Dresses Wedding Accessories New Products - [more] http://www.dresssmall.com/images/wed...ss/tus1072.jpg2012 hot sale Strapless organza pick ups Embroider bodice Design ball gown Wedding Dress 2012 hot sale Strapless organza pick ups Embroider bodice Design ball gown Wedding Dress$806.36 $223.99Save: 72% offhttp://www.dresssmall.com/images/weddingdress/A0028.jpg2012 Lace Elegant Design with Straps A-line Hot Sale Ball Gown Wedding Bridal Gown 2012 Lace Elegant Design with Straps A-line Hot Sale Ball Gown Wedding Bridal Gown$705.56 $195.99Save: 72% offhttp://www.dresssmall.com/images/weddingdress/A0002.jpg2012 Ivoory Sweetheart Court Train Drape Style Applique Ball Gown Wedding Bridal Gown 2012 Ivoory Sweetheart Court Train Drape Style Applique Ball Gown Wedding Bridal Gown$719.96 $199.99Save: 72% offhttp://www.dresssmall.com/images/wed...s/GMWD1035.jpg2012 lovely Strapless chapel train Embroider bodice satin faced organza Ball gown Wedding Dress 2012 lovely Strapless chapel train Embroider bodice satin faced organza Ball gown Wedding Dress$806.36 $223.99Save: 72% off All our dresses can be made in personalized size, styles and colours without additional charges.Can't find a right style dress in our store? No problem, just email us the pictures of the styles you like, and we can make any replicas for you. We can even make dresses in your own design. Home :: Wedding Dresses :: Ball Gown Wedding Dresses Ball Gown Wedding Dresses Displaying 25 to 36 (of 261 products) [<< Prev] 1 2 3[/b] 4 5 ... [Next >>] http://www.dresssmall.com/images/wed.../421_1078a.jpg2012 Bargain Strapless Embroidery Long Train A-line Wedding Bridal Gown$719.96 $199.99Save: 72% off... more info http://www.dresssmall.com/images/weddingdress/4007.jpg2012 Bargain Strapless Style Embroidery Satin Court Train Low Back Ball Gown Wedding Bridal Gown 2012 Bargain Strapless Style Embroidery Satin Court Train Low Back Ball Gown Wedding Bridal Gown$712.76 $197.99Save: 72% off... more info http://www.dresssmall.com/images/wed...s/GMWD1003.jpg2012 beach simple but elegant Strapless Sweetheart dazzling Sash Ball gown Wedding Dress 2012 beach simple but elegant Strapless Sweetheart dazzling Sash Ball gown Wedding Dress$755.96 $209.99Save: 72% off... more info http://www.dresssmall.com/images/wed...ess/FEZ_A2.jpg2012 Bodice Strapless Wrinkle Drape Style Ball Gown Wedding Bridal Gown 2012 Bodice Strapless Wrinkle Drape Style Ball Gown Wedding Bridal Gown$698.36 $193.99Save: 72% off... more info http://www.dresssmall.com/images/weddingdress/A0013.jpg2012 Casual Halter V-neck Organza Style A-line Princess Ball Gown Wedding Bridal Gown 2012 Casual Halter V-neck Organza Style A-line Princess Ball Gown Wedding Bridal Gown$719.96 $199.99Save: 72% off... more info http://www.dresssmall.com/images/weddingdress/A0008.jpg2012 Casual Strapless Applique and Flowers A-line Princess Ball Gown Wedding Bridal Gown 2012 Casual Strapless Applique and Flowers A-line Princess Ball Gown Wedding Bridal Gown$719.96 $199.99Save: 72% off... more info http://www.dresssmall.com/images/weddingdress/A0035.jpg2012 Chapel Train Elegant Design Strapless Ball Gown Wedding Bridal Gown$716.36 $198.99Save: 72% off... more info http://www.dresssmall.com/images/weddingdress/4016.jpg2012 Chapel Train Strapless Embroidery A-line Ball Gown Wedding Bridal Gown 2012 Chapel Train Strapless Embroidery A-line Ball Gown Wedding Bridal Gown$698.36 $193.99Save: 72% off... more info http://www.dresssmall.com/images/wed...ss/tus1289.jpg2012 classic Ball gown strapless and Flower decoration on skirt Wedding Dress$827.96 $229.99Save: 72% off... more info http://www.dresssmall.com/images/wed...ss/tus1188.jpg2012 classic Strapless Sweetheart Embroider bodice and hemline pick ups ball gown Wedding Dress 2012 classic Strapless Sweetheart Embroider bodice and hemline pick ups ball gown Wedding Dress$827.96 $229.99Save: 72% off... more info http://www.dresssmall.com/images/wed...ss/tus1074.jpg2012 classy cap style Straps pick ups Embroider Wedding Dress 2012 classy cap style Straps pick ups Embroider Wedding Dress$827.96 $229.99Save: 72% off... more info http://www.dresssmall.com/images/wed...wn-tus1062.jpg2012 classy european embroidery bodice and hemline satin Bridal Dress 2012 classy european embroidery bodice and hemline satin Bridal Dress$845.96 $234.99Save: 72% off... more info Displaying 25 to 36 (of 261 products) [<< Prev] 1 2 3[/b] 4 5 ... [Next >>] Home Shipping Wholesale Privacy Order Tracking Coupons Conditions of Use FAQ Western Union Payment Methods Contact Us Bridesmaid Dresses Designer Wedding Dress Bridal Gowns Wedding Dresses Prom Dresses Evening Dresses Cocktail Dresses Plus Size Dresses Copyright © 2012 All Rights Reserved. .There are a multitude of things thinking about.When and where stands out as the wedding about to be, what person to why not invite, what colors to apply, what to enjoy, who will make the cake along with the food, maybe there is a creep, and that will provide all the music? There are numerous questions to always be answered and dealt with.Not everything will have to be so irritating; some of this preparations can be fun. Will show you fun what you should plan will be "save your date cards".Your save the night out cards may be a fun thing to pick out.When choosing your preserve the day cards enjoy the fun and find fun cards you require.Part of the reason these kind of cards are actually fun to take is while they do not need to match the remainder of any invitations or maybe decorations in your wedding Dresses blog Dresses About dresssmall.com blog